표 17 오피스의 신규공급량과 공실률 간 관계 : GBD

변수	종속변수(Y) : Diff.공실률					종속변수(Y) : 신규공급량
	독립변수(X) : 신규공급량					독립변수(X) : Diff.공실률
	Mode1_1	Model1_2	Model1_3	Model1_4	Model1_5	Model2_1	Model2_2	Model2_3	Model2_4	Model2_5
	ARDL(1,0)	ARDL(1,1)	ARDL(1,2)	ARDL(2,1)	ARDL(2,2)	ARDL(1,0)	ARDL(1,1)	ARDL(1,2)	ARDL(2,1)	ARDL(2,2)
Yt-1	–0.001	–0.054	–0.071	–0.065	–0.091	–0.175	–0.209	–0.207	–0.227	–0.230
	(0.172)	(0.184)	(0.188)	(0.182)	(0.185)	(0.163)	(0.182)	(0.189)	(0.188)	(0.196)
Yt-2				0.092	0.021				–0.087	–0.111
				(0.183)	(0.201)				(0.174)	(0.201)
Xt	–0.004*	–0.004**	–0.004**	–0.004*	–0.004*	–28.981**	–29.004**	–30.240*	–29.699**	–31.474*
	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(13.638)	(14.061)	(15.297)	(14.315)	(15.657)
Xt-1		–0.002	–0.002	–0.002	–0.002		–8.972	–9.168	–9.974	–10.556
		(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)		(14.871)	(15.412)	(15.201)	(15.814)
Xt-2			–0.001		–0.002			1.822		–1.877
			(0.002)		(0.002)			(15.660)		(17.213)
상수	0.419*	0.575*	0.703*	0.490	0.675*	84.351***	88.199***	87.511***	95.802***	97.275***
	(0.217)	(0.289)	(0.349)	(0.289)	(0.358)	(17.223)	(18.834)	(19.667)	(24.431)	(26.609)
N	33	33	33	32	32	34	33	32	33	32
adj_R2	0.055	0.045	0.026	0.011	0.003	0.093	0.066	0.028	0.041	0.002
AIC	90.652	91.885	93.369	89.194	90.241	390.740	381.987	373.556	383.696	375.181
SIC	95.141	97.871	100.851	96.522	99.035	395.319	387.973	380.884	391.178	383.975
P>chi2	0.2812	0.1621	0.3307	0.6146	0.4034	0.4803	0.6194	0.7561	0.8932	0.8785

주 : 1) ( ) 안은 표준오차(se)를 나타냄.
2) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
3) P>chi2는 시계열 상관(serial correlation)검증테스트인 Breusch-Godfrey LM test의 결과임.