표 18 오피스의 신규공급량과 공실률 간 관계 : YBD

변수	종속변수(Y) : Diff.공실률					종속변수(Y) : 신규공급량
	독립변수(X) : 신규공급량					독립변수(X) : Diff.공실률
	Mode1_1	Model1_2	Model1_3	Model1_4	Model1_5	Model2_1	Model2_2	Model2_3	Model2_4	Model2_5
	ARDL(1,0)	ARDL(1,1)	ARDL(1,2)	ARDL(2,1)	ARDL(2,2)	ARDL(1,0)	ARDL(1,1)	ARDL(1,2)	ARDL(2,1)	ARDL(2,2)
Yt-1	0.015	0.078	0.068	0.061	0.050	0.050	0.118	0.170	0.121	0.195
	(0.165)	(0.172)	(0.178)	(0.192)	(0.204)	(0.173)	(0.185)	(0.191)	(0.187)	(0.190)
Yt-2				–0.094	–0.079				–0.127	–0.237
				(0.192)	(0.209)				(0.178)	(0.187)
Xt	–0.004	–0.004*	–0.004	–0.004	–0.004	–21.859*	–23.573*	–22.982	–22.580	–20.982
	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(12.389)	(13.600)	(13.716)	(13.788)	(13.653)
Xt-1		0.003	0.003	0.003	0.003		14.579	18.565	16.075	22.542
		(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.003)		(12.974)	(13.984)	(13.253)	(14.176)
Xt-2			0.001		0.001			–16.045		–21.734
			(0.002)		(0.003)			(14.083)		(14.627)
상수	0.241*	0.164	0.147	0.170	0.155	26.709**	22.062*	23.482**	24.608**	28.720**
	(0.137)	(0.150)	(0.163)	(0.157)	(0.177)	(10.185)	(11.065)	(11.143)	(11.719)	(11.763)
N	33	33	33	32	32	34	33	32	33	32
adj_R2	0.024	0.038	0.007	0.004	–0.033	0.033	0.036	0.055	0.019	0.076
AIC	73.683	74.083	75.978	74.678	76.634	369.919	360.721	350.898	362.129	350.968
SIC	78.173	80.069	83.461	82.007	85.428	374.498	366.707	358.227	369.612	359.763
P>chi2	0.6080	0.6918	0.6576	0.5296	0.2910	0.1837	0.0567	0.8144	0.1767	0.2909

주 : 1) ( ) 안은 표준오차(se)를 나타냄.
2) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
3) P>chi2는 시계열 상관(serial correlation)검증테스트인 Breusch-Godfrey LM test의 결과임.