표 19 오피스의 신규공급량과 공실률 간 관계 : ET

변수	종속변수(Y) : Diff.공실률					종속변수(Y) : 신규공급량
	독립변수(X) : 신규공급량					독립변수(X) : Diff.공실률
	Mode1_1	Model1_2	Model1_3	Model1_4	Model1_5	Model2_1	Model2_2	Model2_3	Model2_4	Model2_5
	ARDL(1,0)	ARDL(1,1)	ARDL(1,2)	ARDL(2,1)	ARDL(2,2)	ARDL(1,0)	ARDL(1,1)	ARDL(1,2)	ARDL(2,1)	ARDL(2,2)
Yt-1	0.204	0.182	0.226	0.290	0.344*	–0.209	–0.228	–0.205	–0.262	–0.247
	(0.157)	(0.158)	(0.160)	(0.188)	(0.189)	(0.188)	(0.192)	(0.190)	(0.195)	(0.194)
Yt-2				–0.041	–0.006				–0.193	–0.211
				(0.174)	(0.173)				(0.203)	(0.202)
Xt	0.002	0.002	0.002	0.003	0.002	7.249	13.111	13.931	9.530	9.443
	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(11.773)	(13.838)	(13.825)	(14.361)	(14.455)
Xt-1		0.003	0.002	0.002	0.001		2.685	–6.388	5.730	–1.909
		(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)		(12.222)	(14.286)	(12.652)	(14.893)
Xt-2			–0.003		–0.004			21.128*		22.088*
			(0.003)		(0.003)			(12.063)		(12.077)
상수	–0.164	–0.396	–0.044	–0.349	0.065	91.854***	95.127***	90.697***	111.328***	109.125***
	(0.264)	(0.343)	(0.438)	(0.355)	(0.459)	(19.229)	(19.776)	(19.855)	(26.106)	(26.535)
N	33	33	33	32	32	34	33	32	33	32
adj_R2	0.012	0.016	0.036	0.016	0.049	–0.018	–0.029	0.036	–0.032	0.040
AIC	100.737	101.488	101.638	100.126	99.826	396.791	387.027	374.870	387.974	375.554
SIC	105.227	107.474	109.120	107.454	108.620	401.370	393.013	382.198	395.457	384.348
P>chi2	0.2947	0.1022	0.1827	0.0547	0.1754	0.2251	0.4302	0.6334	0.9306	0.2116

주 : 1) ( ) 안은 표준오차(se)를 나타냄.
2) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
3) P>chi2는 시계열 상관(serial correlation)검증테스트인 Breusch-Godfrey LM test의 결과임.