표 20 오피스의 신규공급량과 공실률 간 관계 : BBD

변수 종속변수(Y) : Diff.공실률 종속변수(Y) : 신규공급량
독립변수(X) : 신규공급량 독립변수(X) : Diff.공실률
Mode1_1 Model1_2 Model1_3 Model1_4 Model1_5 Model2_1 Model2_2 Model2_3 Model2_4 Model2_5
ARDL(1,0) ARDL(1,1) ARDL(1,2) ARDL(2,1) ARDL(2,2) ARDL(1,0) ARDL(1,1) ARDL(1,2) ARDL(2,1) ARDL(2,2)
Yt-1 –0.205 –0.207 –0.208 –0.169 –0.168 0.264 0.246 0.268 0.259 0.271
(0.198) (0.205) (0.209) (0.214) (0.218) (0.192) (0.204) (0.208) (0.215) (0.219)
Yt-2 0.209 0.219 –0.052 –0.012
(0.227) (0.234) (0.213) (0.220)
Xt 0.010 0.010 0.009 0.011 0.010 3.273 3.543 3.815 3.483 3.797
(0.010) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) (3.722) (3.944) (4.069) (4.034) (4.181)
Xt-1 0.001 0.001 –0.000 0.001 1.463 0.911 1.440 0.911
(0.011) (0.012) (0.011) (0.012) (4.014) (4.124) (4.100) (4.225)
Xt-2 –0.003 –0.004 –3.400 –3.366
(0.011) (0.012) (4.349) (4.500)
상수 –0.669 –0.712 –0.538 –0.837 –0.587 56.708** 58.702** 55.093** 61.908** 55.849*
(1.198) (1.395) (1.601) (1.440) (1.654) (22.484) (24.059) (24.864) (27.917) (29.085)
N 27 27 27 26 26 28 27 26 27 26
adj_R2 –0.006 –0.049 –0.094 –0.066 –0.113 0.027 –0.016 –0.034 –0.059 –0.085
AIC 162.412 164.408 166.338 160.520 162.378 332.983 324.091 313.715 326.019 315.711
SIC 166.300 169.591 172.817 166.810 169.927 336.979 329.274 320.006 332.499 323.260
P>chi2 0.4631 0.2905 0.3136 0.4943 0.5506 0.9679 0.5391 0.6217 0.4635 0.5481
주 : 1) ( ) 안은 표준오차(se)를 나타냄.
2) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1.
3) P>chi2는 시계열 상관(serial correlation)검증테스트인 Breusch-Godfrey LM test의 결과임.